Scott Walker Wins Recall By Large Margin; Liberal Spin Begins

Virginia Surge

Many believe President Obama's recent endorsement of same sex marriage could cost him in key swing states such as North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. I myself hold to this view, and the polls are starting to support such a stance. A recent Rasmussen Reports poll conducted today, June 4, 2012, shows Romney and Obama tied at 47% a piece in the State of Virginia. Compare that to a Washington Post poll conducted May 3, 2012 which showed Obama besting Romney 53% to 41%, and you will see a 6% increase for Romney, and a 6% drop for Obama. Nonetheless, Virginia is going to be a tough state for Romney to capture. Obama's team has spent a great deal of time setting up a solid infrastructure, and due to his wide appeal to minorities, there is always the chance that more minorities than usual could go to the polls November 6, just like they did in 08. Much of that rest on Obama's ability to fire up minorities across the board. As of today however, that simply wouldn't happen. In fact, the American Black Pastors movement is coming out hard against Obama due to his gay marriage support, and it is well document that a large majority of African Americans oppose same sex marriage (70% backed proposition 8 in California). Any minor decrease in turnout due to a building disdain for Obama's recent change of heart regarding gay marriage could cost the Democrats the election.

Weekend Update

Just a quick weekend analysis here...The next few polls will be very key into determining just how important the economy will be in this race. With the recent release of the jobs numbers which saw registered unemployment rise to 8.2%, it is key to see how the American electorate reacts. Initial polling issued by Rasmussen Reports (which runs on a 3 day rolling average) saw Romney surge ahead to a lead on Saturday after being down by 3 to 4 for the previous weeks, besting Obama by a 4% margin, 48% to 44% . Sundays numbers remained identical. Heading into the week, the key will be to see if the Romney campaign can effectively capitalize on the less than spectacular jobs numbers and continue to increase their way to the 50% mark, or even hold their current lead, or to see if team Obama can spin these numbers in their favor, thus once again inching ahead. If the economy is as important as the polls show, Romney should be in for a good couple of weeks.