Republican Presidential Primary

New shake up in the current national Republican standings. Gingrich falls, Romney and Santorum rise coming out of their strong performances in Iowa.

National GOP Poll:

Romney 29%
Santorum 21%
Gingrich 16%

Very Effective Ad From The Romney Camp

South Carolina: The last stand for anti-Romney

New polling out of South Carolina should spark some fear in the eyes of the Anti-Romney camp. Romney will win New Hampshire. The following state is South Carolina, a state he struggled in in 2008. If he were to win South Carolina, it would be nearly impossible for any of his opponents to halt his momentum or continue to raise money to qualify for future states. The main problem for many of the candidates is qualifying for future contests such as Virginia. Only Romney and Paul got the 10,000 signitures and were able to qualify. All of the other candidates will not be on the ballot and won't be able to win any delegates. It takes a very good organization to secure your name on the ballot in many of these states, and without a good grassroots following and ground game, most all of the candidates, except Romney and Paul, appear poised to not make the cut. The Anti-Romney goal should be to rally around one conservative candidate out of the three ramining (Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry) coming out of New Hampshire. That would give them the best shot of beating Romney in South Carolina, thus allowing time to raise more money heading into the following states of Florida and Nevada.

South Carolina Primary:

Romney 27%
Santorum 24%
Gingrich 18%

rasmussenreports.com

New Hampshire Republican Primary

The New Hampshire primary is less than a week away, and each of the remaining candidates is doing their best to make their case against the current front runner Mitt Romney. Unfortunately for all of them, they have zero chance (unless Romney completely falls on his face in both of the lead in debates) of getting Romney under 30%. The key battle is for second place. Ron Paul appears to have a solid footing with roughly 16-20% of the New Hampshire electorate, and if Santorum and Gingrich continue to split the remaining conservative vote, Paul should secure the second spot.

New Hampshire Republican Primary

Romney 42%
Paul 18%
Santorum 13%
Huntsman 12%

rasmussenreports.com

New Iowa Polling

With only one day left before the Iowa caucus officially starts, the race is still wide open. At this point it all comes down to who has the best organization and can get their supporters out to vote. Much depends on the weather. If the weather is bad, the candidate with the most loyal supporters will win. That candidate would be Ron Paul. However, as I reported earlier last week, a shift seems to be taking place, and conservative evangelical voters appear to be rallying around Rick Santorum. It would not be a shocker in the slightest if Santorum pulled out the victory. At this time, the three candidates whom appear in position to win in Iowa are Romney, Paul, and Santorum. Gingrich has played himself out of the running in Iowa due to millions spent by his rivals on negative ads, and the remaining candidates simply lack the grassroots support to make any serious push in the final day. Look for Michelle Bachmann to drop out of the race in the next two weeks due to a shortage of funds and a poor showing in Iowa.

Ron Paul 20%
Mitt Romney 19%
Rick Santorum 18%
Newt Gingrich 14%
Rick Perry 10%
Michele Bachmann 8%
Jon Huntsman 4%
Undecided 4%
Buddy Roemer 2%

Public Policy Polling
01/01/2012