With voting currently underway in the first in the nation primary of New Hampshire, the race appears to be more focused on whom will finish second, considering Mitt Romneys commanding lead in nearly every single poll conducted in the state since the process began nearly a year ago. Much has happened in terms of momentum in the last 48 hours. Despite what much of the news is reporting, the Sunday morning Meet the Press debate was very damaging to Romney. A less than expected showing in New Hampshire could give fuel to the effect of his inability to solidly answer some of the more pressing questions in that debate. A candidate seen as underperforming will see a hit in the coming states polls. If Romney solidly wins New Hampshire with more than 40% of the vote, he will then have met expectations set for him by the media and will temporarily silence critics who claim he has taken some damage. If he finishes less than 34%, he is in trouble. Remember, South Carolina is the most important state for Romney, and it is next up following New Hampshire. A win there seals the nomination for him. Period. So with that said, here are the predictions of how tonights vote will play out.
1st-Mitt Romney
2nd-John Huntsman
3rd-Ron Paul
4th-Newt Gingrich
5th-Rick Santorum
6th-Rick Perry
The closest battles will be between 2nd/3rd and 4th/5th. The first group will be between the 15%-25% range. The 2nd group will be between the 8%-14% range.
Possible Suprise Candidate-John Huntsman
Huntsmans main goal isn't to win, but to exceed expectations. A second place fininsh with more than 20% of the vote would be exceeding expectations. Anything less than 12-15% and a 2nd, possibly close competitve 3rd, and he will be out of the race within a week.
I really am disappointed with you based on earlier conversations we had about how Mitt isn't the guy.
ReplyDeleteRon Paul, the perpetual presidential foil, is out there slandering everyone else except Romney, not because he believes in Romney, but because he doesn't believe in America. Paul has nothing in common with young people; his followers are about personality. In all of his years in the House, what legislation has he written that has made America better? As a matter of fact, he attacks America. Like Obama, he would tear it down to rebuild it. I think the Founders did a fine job.
Then there's Romney. My problem with him is that he's not Mormon or Capitalist enough. Romney would do the same thing as Obama- establish tyranny. A win for Romney in NH does not clinch the nomination for him. He has to win it or he looks weak, because he is. The NH open primary isn't reflective of the party as a whole; it's reflective of the party apparatchik.
In my opinion, Romney differs very little from Obama. His refusal to distance himself from Romneycare shows that he isn't about choice. He treats us like objects rather than agents, which is entirely inconsistent with the principles of the Revolution and the Gospel of Jesus Christ.
Romney is not a conservative. Romney is about Romney. Mark my words.
I still stand by our earlier conversations. Romney has flaws. There is no doubt about that. But with this field of candidates, I had to settle. Pertaining to Ron Paul I agree with you. My main concern is his simple lack of understanding when it comes to foreign policy. Do I feel the United States should scale back its role in some parts of the world? Yes. Do I think the United States should totally remove itself from all areas of the world? No. We, in a sense, attempted the isolasionists policy after WW1. Doesn't work. With regards to Romney not being Mormon enough, I dont feel in a position to analyze ones personal dedication to any religion. He served a mission and served as a Bishop. He gives 13% to tithing and has given countless amounts of money to BYU and The Boy Scouts. As for him on a personal level pertaining to his dedication to doctrines, I contain no knowledge to comment. The idea that because he once supported abortion could reflect badly on his church standing, but as governor, when the moment came to decide for or against life, he stood on the side of life and vetoed any abotion bill. With regards to gay marriage, his stance is essentially the same as the LDS church stance. We do not support descrimination against gays in the workplace or elswhere. Romney never supported gay marriage. As for him not being capitalist enough, I would agree. But to compare him to Obama is simply incorrect.Romney is different than Obama. The differences may not be as large and apparent as we would like, but they are there. For instance, his position with regards to China are essential going forward. If we can't compete with China, we lose. If we allow them to continue to manipulate their currency and dominate in trade, then we in a sense concede economic superiority to them going forward. Regarding Romneys entire economic plan, I wish he would have been more bold with overall tax reductions, but he wasn't. He would repeal Obamacare, and that in itself is a major tax and spending reduction. People need to understand that. A candidate doesn't stake much of his campaign on an action, then simply not do that action. Especially since he will have a Republican Senate (most likely) and House holding him responsible. He will cut spending and he will cut taxes for the middle class. Those are all things Obama won't do. Its a step forward in my mind. As for primaries being open to independents, I feel all contests should be open to independents. That is the voting block we must win to win the election. With regards to clinching the nomination, a win in South Carolina will, not NH. Historically, South Carolina doesnt like Romney much, and a win there would essentially defeat his main competitors in Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Rick Perry. Both Rick Perry and Santorum would drop out due to lack of support and money. Gingrich may be able to fight on for a few more contests, but it would be in vain, because at that point Romney will have the momentum, money, and support. Is Romney a conservative? He's a moderate leaning conservative. If we were to sit down and have the option of picking any candidate to support in the entire United States would I choose Romney. No. Infact, when I look at todays politicians, I don't find a single one that I agree with on everything. But as I said before, with this field, He's my choice. And I believe/hope that after his first term many of the fears conservative have about him will no longer exist.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, thanks for the comment. I value the input!
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